Trump, Pútín, stríðshættan

Mun Donald Trump breyta utanríkisstefnu USA? Ég bendi hér á grein með brýnum spurningum og varkárum ályktunum um utanríkisstefnu Trumps. Eftir Stephen Kinzer á Boston Globe. Stutt og skýr. Kinzer hefur samið fjölda bóka, m.a. nokkrar um valdaskiptaíhlutanir USA.  

Í kosningabaráttunni spilaði Donald Trump sóló. En það er þyngra að snúa stjórnkerfinu á fullum skirðþunga en halda kosningaræður. Og þeir fáu þungaviktarmenn sem fylgdu honum alla leið (þ.á.m. líklegir ráðherrar) eru hluti af þessu mannætukefi. Þau svið utanríkismála sem Kinzer telur samt að geti breyst tengjast einkum stefnunni gagnvart Rússum, sem myndi þýða minni líkur á stórstyrjöld í bili: "First, he [Trump] wants to de-escalate our spiraling conflict with Russia. For whatever reason, he has rejected the playbook view that President Vladimir Putin is a mad thug whose policies threaten our national security. If he remains firm and pulls us out of the spiral of US-Russia confrontation, he will be stepping back from the conflict that has seemed more likely than any other to explode into nuclear war. Trump’s unorthodox view of Russia leads to his second wise foreign policy instinct, about the horrific war in Syria... It tells him that Syria poses no threat to the United States, and that our priority there should be crushing ISIS, not overthrowing the government... The third way Trump’s foreign policy may break with the playbook has to do with his view of NATO... He doesn’t seem to like the idea that the United States could be dragged into great-power war over a local dispute in the Baltic or the South China Sea."